Working Paper Series

Latino Population Trends & Projections

by Jean Kayitsinga
Lori Post, and Francisco Villarruel
Michigan State University

Demographic Report No. 1
July 2007

Executive Summary

As of 2000, there were 35.3 million Latinos in the United States, representing 12.5% of the total population. The majority of Latinos in the United States were Mexican Americans. Nearly three-fifths of Latinos were of Mexican origin. The Latino population predominantly resides in the West and South regions than in Northeast and Midwest regions. Nearly half of the Latino population in the Midwest lives in the state of Illinois. In 2000, about 7% of the Latino population in the United States resided in rural areas.

In 2000, there were 323,877 Latinos in Michigan, representing about 3.3% of the total population in Michigan. Counties with the greatest number of Latinos include in order of their population size: Wayne, Kent, Oakland, Ottawa, Ingham, Saginaw, Macomb, and Genesee counties. Counties with the greatest proportion of the Latino population include in descending order: Oceana, Van Buren, Ottawa, Kent, Lenawee, Saginaw, Ingham, and Allegan counties. Counties that experienced a significant increase in the proportion of the Latino population between 1990 and 2000 includes, in descending order, St. Joseph, Luke, Menominee, Mackinac, and Leelanau counties (see Table 2).

The Latino population has increased considerably between 1990 and 2000, corresponding to a growth rate of 57.9%. In Michigan, the Latino population increased by 50.3% between 1990 and 2000. The Latino population is projected to reach 24.4% of the population by the year 2050. This report is based on an analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau Summary Tape Files 1 and 4 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2000) and examines the Latino population size, trend, distribution, and projections.

Population Size

In 2000, there were 35.3 million Latinos in the United States, representing 12.5% of the total population. Among the Latino population, 58.5% were of Mexican origin, 9.6% were Puerto Rican, 3.5% were Cuban, 2,2% were from the Dominican Republic, 4.8% were Central American, 3.8% were South American, and the remaining 17.6% were of other Latino origins (see Figure 1).

Region and County of Residence

Latinos are more likely to live in the West (43.5%) and South (32.8%) and less likely to live in the Northeast (14.9%) and Midwest (8.8%) (See Figure 2). In 2000, the majority of the Midwest Latino population lived in the state of Illinois (49.0%), followed by Michigan (10.4%), Ohio (6.9%), Indiana (6.9%), Wisconsin (6.2%), and Kansas (6.0%), respectively (see Figure 3). In 2000, 70.4% of the Latino population in the Midwest were of Mexican origins, 10.4% Puerto Ricans, 1.4% Cubans, 2.9% Central America, 2.5% South America, 0.3% Dominicans, and the remaining 12.1% were of other Latino origins (see Figure 4).

In 2000, there were 323,877 Latinos in Michigan, representing about 3.3% of the total population in Michigan. Among the Michigan Latino population, 68.2% were Mexicans, 8.3% were Puerto Ricans, 2.2% Cubans, 0.7% Dominicans, 4.3% Central and South Americans, and 16.3% other Latinos, respectively (see Figure 5). The number and percent of Latinos in Michigan counties are displayed in Figures 6 and 7 (maps).

Metropolitan/Non-Metropolitan1 Residence

In 2000, about 14% of the U.S. population residing in metropolitan areas was Latinos, compared with 6% in non-metropolitan with a micropolitan center, and 10% in non-core, non-metropolitan areas, respectively. Comparatively, about 4% of the Michigan population living in metropolitan areas was Latino, 3% in non-metropolitan with a micropolitan center, and about 2% on non-core, non-metropolitan areas (see Figure 8).

Historically, Latino population has lived in urban2 areas. In 2000, about 7% of the Latino population in the United States resided in rural areas. In Michigan, 16% of Latino population resided in rural areas (see Figure 9). Among Latino population in rural areas, the majority were Mexicans. About 74% of the Latino Population in rural areas was of Mexican origin. Puerto Ricans, Cubans, and other Latino are more likely to live in urban areas than in rural areas (see Figure 10).


Population Change

The Latino population has increased considerably between 1990 and 2000. The Latino population in the U.S. increased from 22.4 million in 1990 to 35.3 million in 2000, corresponding to a growth rate of 57.9%. The growth of Latino population was 4.4 times greater than that of the total U.S. population, more than 17 times that of non-Latino Whites, nearly 4 times greater than that of African Americans and Native Americans and Alaska Natives, and 1.2 times greater than that of Asians, Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islanders. In Michigan, the Latino population increased from 201,596 in 1990 to 323,877 in 2000, a growth rate of 60.7%. The growth rate of the Latino population was 8.8 times greater than that of the Michigan population and 10.6 times that of non-Latino population in Michigan (see Table 1). The Latino population change, by county, is displayed in the Table 2.

Population Projections

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the Latino population is projected to reach 102.6 million in 2050, approximately 188% change from its 2000 population size of 35.6 million. In 2000, African Americans constituted the second largest minority group in the United States at 12.7%. Latino population represented 12.6% of the population in 2000. By the year 2050, it is projected that the Latino population will reach 24.4% of the population while the African American population will represent about 15% of the population. Non-Latino white constituted the majority group in 2000 at 69.4%. The proportion of non-Latino white is expected to decline to 50.1% by the year 2050 (see Figure 11).

Endnotes

1 Metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas are defined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). In 2003, OMB defined metro areas as (1) central counties with one or more urbanized areas, and (2) outlying counties that are economically tied to the core counties as measured by work commuting. Outlying counties are included if 25% of workers living in the county commute to the central counties, or if 25% of the employment in the county consists of workers coming out from the central counties — the so-called “reverse” commuting pattern. Non-metro counties are outside the boundaries of metro areas and are further subdivided into two types: centered on urban clusters of 10,000 or more persons, and all remaining “non-core” counties.

2 According to official U.S. Census Bureau definitions, rural areas comprise open country and settlements with fewer than 2,500 residents. Urban areas comprise larger places and densely settled areas around them. Urban areas do not necessarily follow municipal boundaries. They are essentially densely settled territory as it might appear from the air. Most counties, whether metropolitan or non-metropolitan, contain a combination of urban and rural populations.
Urban areas are of two types — urbanized areas and urban clusters — identical in the criteria used to delineate them but different in size. The Census Bureau defines an urbanized area wherever it finds an urban nucleus of 50,000 or more people. They may or may not contain any individual cities of 50,000 or more (152 currently do not). In general, they must have a core with a population density of 1,000 persons per square mile and may contain adjoining territory with at least 500 persons per square mile.
The same computerized procedures and population density criteria are used to identify urban clusters of at least 2,500 but less than 50,000 persons. This delineation of built-up territory around small towns and cities is new for the 2000 census. According to this system, rural areas consist of all territory located outside of urbanized areas and urban clusters.

About the Authors

Jean Kayitsinga

Dr. Jean Kayitsinga is a sociologist demographer for JSRI and Visiting Assistant Professor in the Department of Counseling Educational Psychology and Special Education, Measurement and Quantitative Methods (MQM) program at MSU, where he received his Ph.D. in sociology in 1999. His areas of specialization include rural sociology, sociology of families, demography, research methods and statistical methodologies.

Lori Post

Dr. Lori Post is Assistant Dean for Research in the College of Communication Arts and Sciences. She is a trained as a demographer and her research focus is violence prevention.

Francisco Villarruel

Dr. Francisco A. Villarruel, a University Outreach Fellow and a Professor of Family and Child Ecology at MSU, is the Acting Director of MSU’s Latino research center— the Julian Samora Research Institute. His research focus is generalized into three areas: Latino youth and families, positive youth development, and developmental contextualism. He is also the chair of the National Hispanic Education Alliance (NAHE).

 

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